, , , SCENARIOS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF ZABAIKALSKY KRAY FOR THE PERIOD UNTIL 2035 // BSU bulletin. Economy and Management. - 2023. №1. . - С. 43-51.

SCENARIOS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF ZABAIKALSKY KRAY FOR THE PERIOD UNTIL 2035

DOI: 10.18101/2304-4446-2023-1-43-51 UDK: 332.144

The article considers the scenarios of regional development proposed within the framework of the program document of the Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of Zabaikalsky Krai until 2035. We have characterized three fundamental scenarios for the development of the region: conservative, basic and forced, and described the technology of their construction based on the use of a power regression model and the selected system of indicators for making forecasts. The chosen system of indicators can be conditionally divided into four groups: economy and demography; employment and income of the population; development of individual branches and spheres of the economy; foreign economic activity and regional budget. The article presents the results of forecasting, which are clearly interpreted using diagrams that reflect the dynamics of changes in the basic indices of physical quantity in the context of established control points.

socio-economic development, development scenarios, development strategy, forecasts, model, system of indicators, indices of physical quantity.