BSU bulletin. Economy and Management
Bibliographic description:
, , A METHODOLOGY FOR CALCULATING THE ESTIMATED FIGURES OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RISKS // BSU bulletin. Economy and Management. - 2016. №1. . - С. 15-28.
Title:
A METHODOLOGY FOR CALCULATING THE ESTIMATED FIGURES OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RISKS
Financing:
Codes:
UDK: 332.14
Annotation:
The paper describes a unique methodology for forecasting the socio-economic devel- opment of territories, which, unlike the ones currently applied, allows taking into account the forecasting risks. The problem of estimating and calculating the risks at the stage of forecasting has acquired particular importance due to increasing uncertainty of the environment in which the modern economic systems have to develop and interact.
Keywords:
Forecasting of the socio-economic development, forecasting risks, evaluation of forecasting risks, calculation of forecasting risks.
List of references:
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2. Albegov, M.M. et al. (eds). (2001). Short-term forecasting of regional development in the conditions of incomplete information [Kratkosrochnoe prognozirovanie regional'nogo razvitiya v usloviyakh nepolnoi informatsii]. Moscow, Editorial URSS Publ.
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6. Capps, O.Jr. (1995). Taking the Con out of Economic Forecasting. The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems. 14 (1).
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9. Dubrova, T.A. (2010). Forecasting the socio-economic processes. [Prognozirovanie sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh protsessov]. Moscow, Market DS Publ.
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11. Georgantzas, N.C. & Acar, W. (1995). Scenario-Driven Planning: Learning to Manage Strategic Uncertainty. Westport, Quorum Books.
12. Granberg, A.G. (1990). Statistical modeling and forecasting [Statisticheskoe modelirovanie i prognozirovanie]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika Publ.
13. Greenspan, A. (1991). Economic Forecasting in the Private and Public Sectors. Business Economics. 26 (1).
14. Higgins, M.L., Croushore, D. & Lahiri, K. (2011). Advances in Economic Forecasing. Kalamazoo, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
15. Kacapyr, E. (1996). Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art. Armonk, N.Y.
16. Klein, A. & Lawrence, A. (1995). Economic Forecasting in a Business Environment. The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems. 14 (1).
17. Kondratyev, N.D. (1988). Problems of foresight [Problemy predvideniya]. Econom- ics and mathematical methods [Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody]. XXIV (2): 245-268.
18. Marquard, S. (1994). The Distortion Theory of Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Guide for Economists and Investors. Westport, Quorum Books.
19. Meyer, D.J. (2003). The Economics of Risk. Kalamazoo, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
20. Minko, E.V. (2012). Methods of forecasting and operation research [Metody prognozirovaniya i issledovaniya operatsii]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika; INFRA-M Publ.
21. Tsydypova, T.B. (2013). Risk management at the stage of forecasting of socio-economic development of the territory [Upravlenie riskami na etape prognozirovaniya sotsial'nokonomicheskogo razvitiya territorii]. Russian Entrepreneurship. 236 (14). Retrieved from http://old.creativeconomy.ru/articles/29180/.
22. Tsygichko, V.N. (2009). Forecasting of the socio-economic processes [Prognoziro- vanie sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh protsessov]. Moscow, Librokom Publ.
23. Tsyrenov, D.D. (2012). Complex forecasting of the development of the regional system of secondary vocational education (on the example of the Republic of Buryatia) [Kompleksnoe prognozirovanie razvitiya regional'noi sistemy srednego professional'nogo obrazovaniya (na primere Respubliki Buryatiya)]. Bulletin of the Samara State Technical University. Series: Economics [Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta. Seriya: Ekonomicheskie nauki]. 1: 110-117.
24.Vanchikova, E.N. & Dondokov, Z.B-D. (2012). On the issue of evaluation the effec- tiveness of implementation of the programs of socio-economic development [K voprosu otsenki effektivnosti vypolneniya programm sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya]. Bulletin of the Irkutsk State Economic Academy [Izvestiya Irkutskoi gosudarstvennoi ekonomicheskoi akademii]. 3: 163-166.
2. Albegov, M.M. et al. (eds). (2001). Short-term forecasting of regional development in the conditions of incomplete information [Kratkosrochnoe prognozirovanie regional'nogo razvitiya v usloviyakh nepolnoi informatsii]. Moscow, Editorial URSS Publ.
3. Ansoff, I. (2009). Strategic management. [Strategicheskii menedzhment]. St. Pe- tersburg, Piter Publ.
4. Bassie, V.L. (1958). Economic Forecasting. New York, McGraw-Hill.
5. Butakova, M.M. (2010). Economic forecasting: methods and devices of practical calculations: teaching guide [Ekonomicheskoe prognozirovanie: metody i priemy prakti- cheskikh raschetov]. Moscow, KNORUS Publ.
6. Capps, O.Jr. (1995). Taking the Con out of Economic Forecasting. The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems. 14 (1).
7. Culp, Ch.L. (2001). The Risk Management Process: Business Strategy and Tactics. New York, John Wiley & Sons.
8. Davidson, J. (2003). Frame Managing Risk in Organizations: A Guide for Manag- ers. San Francisco, Jossey-Bass.
9. Dubrova, T.A. (2010). Forecasting the socio-economic processes. [Prognozirovanie sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh protsessov]. Moscow, Market DS Publ.
10. Fiske, J.R., Lamb, J.C. & Morss, M.F. (1991). Practical Economic Forecasting for Small Regions // Business Economics. 26 (3).
11. Georgantzas, N.C. & Acar, W. (1995). Scenario-Driven Planning: Learning to Manage Strategic Uncertainty. Westport, Quorum Books.
12. Granberg, A.G. (1990). Statistical modeling and forecasting [Statisticheskoe modelirovanie i prognozirovanie]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika Publ.
13. Greenspan, A. (1991). Economic Forecasting in the Private and Public Sectors. Business Economics. 26 (1).
14. Higgins, M.L., Croushore, D. & Lahiri, K. (2011). Advances in Economic Forecasing. Kalamazoo, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
15. Kacapyr, E. (1996). Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art. Armonk, N.Y.
16. Klein, A. & Lawrence, A. (1995). Economic Forecasting in a Business Environment. The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems. 14 (1).
17. Kondratyev, N.D. (1988). Problems of foresight [Problemy predvideniya]. Econom- ics and mathematical methods [Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody]. XXIV (2): 245-268.
18. Marquard, S. (1994). The Distortion Theory of Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Guide for Economists and Investors. Westport, Quorum Books.
19. Meyer, D.J. (2003). The Economics of Risk. Kalamazoo, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
20. Minko, E.V. (2012). Methods of forecasting and operation research [Metody prognozirovaniya i issledovaniya operatsii]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika; INFRA-M Publ.
21. Tsydypova, T.B. (2013). Risk management at the stage of forecasting of socio-economic development of the territory [Upravlenie riskami na etape prognozirovaniya sotsial'nokonomicheskogo razvitiya territorii]. Russian Entrepreneurship. 236 (14). Retrieved from http://old.creativeconomy.ru/articles/29180/.
22. Tsygichko, V.N. (2009). Forecasting of the socio-economic processes [Prognoziro- vanie sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh protsessov]. Moscow, Librokom Publ.
23. Tsyrenov, D.D. (2012). Complex forecasting of the development of the regional system of secondary vocational education (on the example of the Republic of Buryatia) [Kompleksnoe prognozirovanie razvitiya regional'noi sistemy srednego professional'nogo obrazovaniya (na primere Respubliki Buryatiya)]. Bulletin of the Samara State Technical University. Series: Economics [Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta. Seriya: Ekonomicheskie nauki]. 1: 110-117.
24.Vanchikova, E.N. & Dondokov, Z.B-D. (2012). On the issue of evaluation the effec- tiveness of implementation of the programs of socio-economic development [K voprosu otsenki effektivnosti vypolneniya programm sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya]. Bulletin of the Irkutsk State Economic Academy [Izvestiya Irkutskoi gosudarstvennoi ekonomicheskoi akademii]. 3: 163-166.
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