, , , , , , COMPUTER MODELING OF THE VACCINATION IMPACT ON COVID-19 EPIDEMIC PROCESS // BSU bulletin. Medicine and pharmacy. - 2023. №1. . - С. 43-55.

COMPUTER MODELING OF THE VACCINATION IMPACT ON COVID-19 EPIDEMIC PROCESS

DOI: 10.18101/2306-1995-2023-1-43-55 UDK: 616-036.22

The aim of our study is to determine the epidemiological efficacy of COVID-19 immunoprophylaxis with the Gam-COVID-Vac vaccine using a mathematical model pro- grammed in COVASIM environment. Our mathematical model is based on global epidemio- logical data and demographic statistics sourced from the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing. The tests run simulated various vaccina- tion levels. The simulations run with vaccination levels of 16.5% and 24.7% showed almost no influence on the epidemic spread of the infection, while the vaccination of 70% of the population allowed for a significant decline in the numbers of severe, critical, and lethal cases. At the time when the simulations were run with the existing data, the 98% vaccination changed the pattern of the infection to sporadic. We plan to continue the study when epide- miological data on the virulence and pathogenicity of new COVID-19 variants BA.2.86, HV.1 and JN.1, as well as data on the efficacy of the updated vaccine will be obtained.

COVID-19, vaccinal prevention, epidemic process, COVASIM computer model, immunoprophylaxis, pandemic.